Government turnover: Concepts, measures and applications

While government turnover is often thought of as an adverse source of instability, it may also be viewed as a favourable source of competition and institution-building. To articulate and test such hypotheses, this article describes two main concepts of government turnover: leadership turnover, or change in rulers, and ideological turnover, or change in the rulers’ ideology. Refinements involve the mode, outcome and timing of turnover. The article discusses measurement issues that arise when there are multiple power institutions and when parliaments are controlled by changing majority coalitions. The measures of turnover are illustrated by examining the post-communist world. The article considers the possibility that higher cumulative post-transition turnover – in terms of leaderships or ideologies – has assisted in establishing the rule of law. Turnover of governments is a basic source of variation in institutions and policies. Like mass accountability through elections, frequent change of governments is a distinguishing feature of democracy. Unlike mass electoral accountability, however, the frequency of government turnover is a variable characteristic of democracy. The frequency and character of turnover depend on voter preferences, political institutions, and salient events and issues. In autocracies, turnover may be less common, but also varies in quantity and quality. Turning to effects, turnover is often considered to be an important influence on economic policies and performance. Yet turnover’s impact is understood in different, sometimes contradictory ways – as a disruptive source of uncertainty and instability, or as promoting accountability and error correction through political competition. After reviewing some hypothetical economic impacts, this article advances a family of concepts and measures of government turnover. These can be used to articulate and test theories and hypotheses about turnover’s consequences. Some hypothetical economic impacts of government turnover Predictability of economic relations is widely considered to be fundamental to the workings of market economies. Personal, property and contract rights European Journal of Political Research 48: 107–129, 2009 107 doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00827.x © 2008 The Author(s) Journal compilation © 2008 (European Consortium for Political Research) Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden,